Even Remodeling is in the Doldrums

Annual spending on home improvements and repairs is expected to remain relatively flat through late 2027, according to the latest Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) from the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Year-over-year growth in renovation and repair spending is expected to reach just 1.5 percent by the third quarter.

“Retail spending on building products has been flat to negative, and remodeling permits have stagnated, which points to continued sluggish renovation activity,” said Rachel Bogardus Drew, Director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Center. “We expect annual spending to hover around $525 billion through the third quarter of next year.”

“Housing starts also continue to decline, and we are seeing persistent weakness in the broader housing market,” said Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Center. “These ongoing headwinds could slow growth in remodeling spending even further in the quarters ahead.”

Note: In September 2026, the Census Bureau re-benchmarked its estimates of monthly retail sales, which altered some LIRA quarterly spending estimates going back to 2018 by less than one percent, with marginal impacts on year-over-year rates of change.

The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) provides a short-term outlook of national home improvement and repair spending to owner-occupied homes. The indicator, calculated from the annual rate-of-change of its components, is designed to project the annualized spending for the current quarter and subsequent four quarters, and is intended to help identify future turning points in the business cycle of the home improvement and repair industry. Originally developed in 2007, the LIRA was re-benchmarked in April 2016 to a broader market measure based on the biennial American Housing Survey (AHS), and was last revised in late 2024 with updated correlations following the release of the 2023 AHS.

The LIRA is released by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University approximately three weeks after each quarter’s closing. The next LIRA release date is January 21, 2027.

The Remodeling Futures Program, initiated by the Joint Center for Housing Studies in 1995, is a comprehensive study of the factors influencing the growth and changing characteristics of housing renovation and repair activity in the United States. The Program seeks to produce a better understanding of the home improvement industry and its relationship to the broader residential construction industry.

The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies strives to improve equitable access to decent, affordable homes in thriving communities. We conduct rigorous research to advance policy and practice, and we bring together diverse stakeholders to spark new ideas for addressing housing challenges. Through teaching and fellowships, we mentor and inspire the next generation of housing leaders. For more information, please visit www.jchs.harvard.edu.