GOP Poised to Lose Three or Four Legislative Seats

.The already-massive supermajority Democrats wield in the Massachusetts Legislature is guaranteed to get larger next session.

With one race still too close to call Wednesday afternoon, Democrats had already claimed victory or been declared winners in 132 of 160 House districts. That's three more seats than they secured last cycle, and with the Senate maintaining its existing 37-3 breakdown, Democrats are assured of a net legislative pickup of at least three and perhaps four seats as they head toward trifecta control on Beacon Hill.

Republicans so far won 26 seats in the House, four fewer than they held at the start of the 2021-2022 term, and Rep. Susannah Whipps of Athol secured reelection to keep one district independent.

By Wednesday afternoon, 39 of the 40 Senate races had been called by the Associated Press, and Democrat Rep. Jake Oliveira of Ludlow claimed victory in the only other one. Democrats cruised to victory in all five open Senate races, with Oliveira, fellow Reps. Liz Miranda of Boston and Paul Mark of Becket, and newcomers Robyn Kennedy of Worcester and Pavel Payano of Lawrence set to join the chamber in January.

All three Senate Republicans -- Minority Leader Bruce Tarr of Gloucester, Patrick O'Connor of Weymouth and Ryan Fattman of Sutton -- secured reelection Tuesday, when every single incumbent in either chamber who sought another term emerged victorious.

The final unresolved House race could break in either direction as the final votes get tallied.

In the First Middlesex District, which Republican Rep. Sheila Harrington of Groton held until she resigned to join the judiciary, Townsend Republican Andrew Shepherd led Pepperell Democrat Margaret Scarsdale by only a few dozen votes with an undetermined amount of mail-in ballots yet to be counted, according to a source.

If Shepherd closes out a victory, it would leave the final balance at a three-seat loss for Republicans compared to the start of the last term; a Scarscale comeback would push the shift to four seats.

The outcome is on track to surpass what top Massachusetts Democrats forecast in the days leading up to Tuesday's election, and it reflects another string of losses for Republicans who will not only see their minority ranks in the House shrink but will also hand the corner office to Democrat Gov.-elect Maura Healey after eight years under Republican Gov. Charlie Baker.

Baker, who opted against seeking a third term and has repeatedly clashed with MassGOP leadership who are seeking to pull the party further to the right in an embrace of former President Donald Trump, did not say much Wednesday when asked to reflect on the significance of Republican losses.

"The voters spoke, it's what elections are for," Baker said after meeting with Healey to discuss the gubernatorial transition.

Pressed on what the outcomes up and down the ballot mean for the MassGOP and his future connections to the state party, he replied, "She's still the attorney general, I'm still the governor. I've got a job I got to do for the next 58 days or so, and then we can talk about that stuff."

"Elections are about the people on the tickets. And as I said in my remarks, I think the governor-elect and the lieutenant governor-elect both ran a very strong campaign and the voters have spoken," Baker added about Healey and her Democrat running mate, Lt. Gov.-elect Kim Driscoll.

With Tuesday's wins, Democrats have now expanded their House supermajority in each of the past three elections. And regardless of the outcome in the lone unresolved district, the incoming class will reflect the most House Democrats at the start of a two-year term since the 2009-2010 session, when they outnumbered Republicans 144 to 16.

To cross into guaranteed-pickup territory, Democrats rode widespread success in open seats, including at least two flips of districts last held by Republicans. Newburyport business research publisher Dawne Shand won in a North Shore district vacated when Republican Rep. Jim Kelcourse resigned to join the Parole Board, and Dennis Select Board member Chris Flanagan topped the race for the seat Republican Rep. Tim Whelan gave up to launch an unsuccessful bid for Barnstable County sheriff.

Wrentham Republican Marcus Vaughn squeaked out a narrow win in the Ninth Norfolk District, keeping GOP control of the seat Rep. Shawn Dooley gave up to challenge for the Senate.

The AP tally listed Vaughn leading 51 percent to 49 percent with more than 95 percent of the vote counted, and Democrat Kevin Kalkut conceded the race late Wednesday morning. While he claimed victory, Vaughn praised Kalkut for "extraordinary tenacity and conviction throughout this process."

"Though we have differing opinions on policy issues, I recognize in him the kinship of activism. Kevin holds strong convictions and is willing to fight for them, to put his name on the ballot and work to earn votes. That is not easy, and it takes a special person to commit to the task in the way he did," Vaughn said in a statement. "As we embarked on this journey nine months ago, [my wife] Kaitlin and I knew that this was going to be an extremely tough race and feat. I am completely honored and humbled by this experience and very much look forward to following through on my commitment to you, the people of 9th Norfolk by focusing on your wallet, your family and your future."

Republican Rep. Leonard Mirra of Georgetown also won narrowly, fending off a challenge from Hamilton Democrat Kristin Kassner. Mirra said in an Election Night tweet that preliminary results listed him up by 83 votes with all precincts reporting.

"It's been an honor to represent you & your families, and I'm excited to get back to work," he wrote.

Also on track to earn reelection by tight margins were Republican Rep. David DeCoste of Norwell and Democrat Rep. Natalie Higgins of Leominster, though neither race had been formally called as of Wednesday afternoon.

Democrats secured a clean sweep of all five incumbent-free House districts newly drawn in the latest round of redistricting, which will send Rita Mendes of Brockton, Judith Garcia of Chelsea, Estela Reyes of Lawrence, Kate Donaghue of Westborough and Priscila Sousa of Framingham to Beacon Hill. (Of that group, only Donaghue and Garcia had opponents in Tuesday's election.)

The balance of power in the Massachusetts Senate will not change at the start of the next two-year session in January after all three Republican incumbents won reelection. [Chris Lisinski/SHNS]

Insiders had a close eye on the race for a redrawn Senate district stretching from Needham down to the Rhode Island border. Democrat Sen. Becca Rausch turned heads when she toppled sitting Republican Sen. Richard Ross in 2018, and she faced a tough challenge this year from Dooley, who had Baker's backing.

The final margin turned out to be not all that close. With more than 95 percent of votes counted, the AP tally reported that Rausch secured 55 percent to Dooley's 45 percent to notch a comfortable win.

"We talked to thousands of voters in each and every town about the issues that matter most -- abortion access and reproductive equity, the economy, health care, education, and climate action. We engaged hundreds of new volunteers -- especially young people -- throughout this district and beyond who got involved because they believe in fighting for the future of our Commonwealth," Rausch said in her victory speech. "Most importantly, we ran a campaign that was rooted in shared values and focused on making our communities stronger and people's lives better, fairer, more equitable, and hopefully less expensive. We ran a race that centered integrity, decency, and truth."

U.S. Sen. Ed Markey on Tuesday praised a quintet of Democrat newcomers who won elections to state legislative seats. He touted Representative-elect Shirley Arriaga as the first woman and first Latina to represent the Eighth Hampden District, Payano as the first Dominican-American in the state Senate, Mendes and Sousa as the Legislature's first Brazilian-American women, and Garcia as the Legislature's first Honduran-American.

"Meeting them, I was inspired. They are optimistic about what they can accomplish, about the opportunities they plan to create for their new constituents," Markey said, according to a transcript of his remarks provided by his office. "These are not the leaders of tomorrow, they are the leaders of today."

The Massachusetts Caucus of Women Legislators said Wednesday it expects to welcome "several new members" and see its ranks swell to "upwards of 60 members" in January, reflecting about 30 percent of the Legislature.