Secretary of State William Galvin is forecasting that about 850,000 ballots will be cast in this year's Democratic primary contests and more than 300,000 votes will be registered in the GOP contests.
Galvin offered his predictions Thursday morning, a day before the pre-primary early voting period is set to end. The state's top election official said voters not aligned with either major party are active this year, with unenrolled voters accounting for more than 50 percent of the mail-in ballots requested.
About 22 percent of the independents who have requested ballots have asked for Republican ballots, he said, a high level that he said could be a sign that unenrolled voters may want a say in the big race on the GOP ballot, the governor's primary between Geoff Diehl and Chris Doughty.
Galvin applauded the vote-by-mail reform, saying that more than 374,000 of the roughly 700,000 ballots sought have already been returned, a number that changes by the hour. With the primary election on Tuesday, Galvin urged anyone using a vote-by-mail ballot to use a dropbox at this late hour in the election cycle in order to ensure that their ballot is received by the 8 p.m. Tuesday deadline.
Forecasting turnout, Galvin said, is difficult since vote-by-mail and early voting reforms were not in place for the 2018 primaries. Local races in Brockton, Lawrence and Worcester could push turnout up, he said, but a dearth of races in Plymouth County is likely to tamp down turnout in that region.
Numerous polls have shown large numbers of likely primary voters say they are undecided about the candidates, and Galvin suggested that some of those voters just might not vote at all. - Michael P. Norton/SHNS