Key House Figure Hints at Cuts to Come

Saying he's buckled in for budget belt-tightening, top House Democrat Aaron Michlewitz on Sunday also highlighted some House spending priorities while giving a nod to affordability questions with Gov. Maura Healey's "aggressive agenda."

Healey outlined plans for new state spending during press conferences, speeches to local officials, and in her State of the Commonwealth address, while also acknowledging flat state tax collections. The governor wants significant investments in child care, higher education, local aid, transportation and other areas and is also pursuing a series of high-dollar long-term borrowing bills.

"It was great to see her excited and energized and and show a lot of emotion in terms of those discussions and I think she did a great job," Michlewitz said during an appearance on WCVB's "On the Record" program. "But we're going to have to see if -- the devil will be in the details -- and we'll have to see how it plays out when they file their budget and what we can and can't afford."

He later added, "Some of these new initiatives, we're not really sure what we're gonna be able to do yet."

Michlewitz said he's looking forward this week to learning the costs of Healey's plans and the methods the governor recommends to fund them. Healey is set to fully unveil her fiscal year 2025 budget on Wednesday.

"We are going to have to go through a difficult budget cycle here," he said. "There is going to have to be a tightening of the belt."

During the televised interview, Michlewitz also discussed housing affordability and the migrant shelter crisis, the seeming inevitability of a Joe Biden-Donald Trump rematch, and was asked about the possibility of him succeeding House Speaker Ron Mariano this year.

The Boston Democrat attached priority status to several just-established state spending initiatives.

"There are a lot of important things that we that we are or have been funding for years and some of new initiatives like universal school meals, no cost calls [for incarerated individuals], community college for anybody ... over 25," he said. "Those are important initiatives that we put on the table last year for the first time. We want to make sure we're able to fund those. Those are really going to be the priority going forward."

House Democrats may also look to gambling for revenue, by again pushing their plans to allow Massachusetts Lottery games to go online, an idea that House leaders last session estimated could generate $200 million.

Calling online Lottery an "easy fix" that could generate new money for early education, Michlewitz said, "I think it's something that we feel strongly about -- we have felt strongly about it -- hasn't got over the finish line yet, but something that we're going to keep working on."

Michlewitz was one of the top state officials who agreed on the fiscal 2024 budget revenue estimate that Healey just lowered by $1 billion, while shaving $375 million from the fiscal 2024 budget that Michlewitz co-authorized with Senate budget chief Michael Rodrigues.

"As we know, things go up and things come down here related to the budget," Michlewitz said. "I mean, we went through 30 straight months of going above our benchmarks, so it was bound to happen that we were going to have some type of slowdown at some point."

Healey and top Democrats in the Legislature last year also agreed to a $1 billion tax relief law. Healey last week swore off proposing tax hikes to pay for her budget plans, but also unveiled her plans to seek a new law making it easier for cities and towns to raise local taxes.

Like Speaker Mariano did a few days ago, Michlewitz used a word associated with a mental illness to punctuate his stance on tax hikes.

"Tax hikes, you know, are not on the table," Michlewitz said. "I think the speaker said it best, we'd be schizophrenic by saying we would be lowering taxes one one day and then raising taxes the next."

Michlewitz was also asked about criticism that Beacon Hill Democrats are overspending. Business leaders have implored the Legislature to hit the brakes on spending increases, asserting that appropriations have risen at "breakneck speed" and dramatically outpaced inflation.

"I disagree with that statement that we have a spending problem," Michlewitz said, pivoting to state efforts to stash more than $8 billion in the rainy day fund and the existence of some federal economic relief funds that have not been spent yet. "We're one of the last states that actually haven't spent their ARPA money."

Michlewitz indicated interest in the House in advancing Healey's $4 billion housing bond bill.

"We obviously have a housing crisis," he said. "This is much needed, something we're certainly interested in doing. ... The hope is to get it passed before the end of the legislative session."

Michlewitz added, "It is probably the number one issue that I think many of me and my colleagues hear about when we're talking to our constituents. Housing is at the forefront of a lot of our minds. This bond bill will certainly help. It is not the cure-all. It is going to take some time. It took took us years to get into this issue. It's going to take us years to get out of it."

One emergent pressure on the budget is the rapid influx of migrant families, entitled to emergency shelter while their asylum cases play out, under the only state law of its kind in the nation. Emergency family shelter could cost the state $1 billion this fiscal year.

Michlewitz called the migrant shelter crisis "an issue that was created from Washington."

"We're dealing with it in a compassionate way," he said.

While state officials have repeatedly called for immigration reforms from Congress, Michlewitz said, "I'm not betting on that."

He also cautioned that Massachusetts might only expect to receive $40 million to $50 million in migrant-related federal funds under a spending bill recommended by President Biden, and called for quicker processing of work permits to enable new arrivals to start working.

"It's still over a year - the average shelter wait while while someone's waiting for their workforce visa," he said. "That timeline needs to get shrunken. It needs to get smaller for people to get out there and be able to make money so they can get out of the shelter system."

A 7,500-family cap on emergency shelter "has not stopped people from coming here," Michlewitz said. "People are still going to be coming here. We need to handle this again in a compassionate way, but also in a in a strategic way."

Program hosts picked up a thread with Michlewitz that began when Mariano said in October that he planned to run for reelection while also declining to commit to serving out the full two-year term if reelected.

Speaker Mariano in October turned 77, and midterm transfers of power have been the method for recent House leadership transitions.

Co-host Sharman Sacchetti told Michlewitz "you are widely seen as the next speaker of the House" and asked if he expected to be speaker "anytime soon."

In his reply, Michlewitz did nothing to either discourage or stimulate rumination about his speakership aspirations.

"I'm enjoying my time tremendously working with Speaker Mariano. He's a dear friend and a mentor to me and in honor of Bill Belichick, we're on to the budget," Michlewitz said.

Later in the program, Republican political analyst and former top aide to Gov. William Weld Ginny Buckingham was asked when Michlewitz would become speaker.

"As soon as Ron Mariano says he can," Buckingham said. "And that's the way the State House works."

Democratic strategist and commentator Mary Anne Marsh added: "If Aaron is a guest on the show a year from now, he'll be Speaker Michlewitz. So the question is, does Ron Mariano decide not to run for reelection or does he step down sometime between now and then, but I expect [Michlewitz] to be speaker next year at this time."

Who might be serving as U.S. president next year?

"I'm of the mindset that Donald Trump's going to be the nominee," Michlewitz said. "I think anybody that's open for anything else is just kind of wishing and hoping at this point in time. I don't think it's a reality that it's not going to be Joe Biden versus Donald Trump and, and we'll have to deal with to deal with that in November when we get to it."