What To Watch For On Beacon Hill In 2025

Newly reelected House Speaker Ron Mariano addresses the chamber on Jan. 1, 2025. (Chris Lisinski/SHNS)

A new year and new legislative session have arrived, and there are already loads of pressing issues that appear ripe for attention from Gov. Maura Healey, Senate President Karen Spilka, House Speaker Ronald Mariano and the rest of Beacon Hill's extended cast of lawmakers, regulators and bureaucrats.

Mindful that there is almost certain to be a handful of major issues that unexpectedly pop up and demand attention from the governor's administration and Legislature this year, here's a look at some of the already simmering issues that could rise to a rolling boil in 2025:

MBTA BUDGET CRISIS: To many on Beacon Hill, MBTA officials warning that the agency doesn't have enough money feels like the boy who cried wolf -- but even in that fable, the wolf did eventually show up. It looks like that could be the case in 2025: the T has already spent down its pandemic aid and savings, and now its leaders have few immediate options to navigate a budget gap forecast to be around $700 million. Slashing the T's spending probably will not get much traction after a concentrated -- and, arguably, successful -- effort in the last 18 months to staff up and invest in service improvements. Beacon Hill power players might be gearing up for yet another debate about how to fund the MBTA in the long term, informed by a task force that got an extension on the report that was due to Gov. Healey by the end of 2024 and buoyed by surging surtax revenues that must be earmarked for transportation or education. "There's going to be more work around transportation, for sure," Healey told the News Service in her year-end interview last month. - Chris Lisinski

SURTAX "SURPLUS": The voter-approved surtax on high earners has been a bright spot for state budget managers, who otherwise are dealing with uneven tax collections. After the Legislature and Gov. Healey built the fiscal 2024 budget using a conservative estimate for surtax collections, the actual haul far outpaced that figure, leaving more than $1.2 billion in additional money set aside for future investments in transportation and education. Top Democrats already have their eyes on spending down that pot, and House budget chief Aaron Michlewitz signaled in October "we'll probably have to use all of it" on transportation in particular. Healey and the Senate will have their own ideas. The timing overlaps with a pivotal debate at the MBTA, which is facing a massive budget gap starting July 1 that raises the specter of service cuts without additional state aid. Of course, when there's money to be distributed, everyone wants a piece, so lawmakers are likely to face sustained lobbying efforts and internal debate on the best way to carve up the funding. Having a dedicated pool of money to spend on a handful of pressing issues early in the session could make some springtime budget decisions less painful as Beacon Hill braces for another tight budget year in fiscal 2026. - Chris Lisinski

WATCHING THE WALLET: Even with relatively low unemployment and state reserves at a historic high, most of Beacon Hill expects fiscal 2026 will be a challenging budget year. Softening non-surtax revenue collections, spending demands inflated by pandemic-era initiatives and a mountain of uncertainty about the direction of key federal policies all suggest policymakers may need to take a more active role in budget management. "We're really worried about FY '26," Senate Ways and Means Chair Michael Rodrigues told reporters in December. But even before fiscal 2026 can begin on July 1, the state has to navigate through the second, riskier half of what has been a year of mixed results so far. The budget watchdogs at Mass. Taxpayers Foundation said in December that they do not think Healey will have to make the same kind of midyear budget cuts she did last January, but DOR projects that collections will end the year short of the current target so something may have to give. January collections, which DOR is due to report by Feb. 5, will be especially telling. That month is the start of a crucial six-month period for the state's coffers. Collections are not split evenly across the 12 months and the second half of the fiscal year (January through June) typically produces about 60 percent of the state's annual tax revenue, officials have said. The second half of the budget year also tends to be more volatile for tax collections. - Colin A. Young

LEGISLATIVE RULE CHANGES: Top Democrats once again failed to complete a long list of top priorities before the July 31 end of formal sessions in 2024. But unlike past terms when anything left in limbo died, lawmakers crafted workarounds to keep big action during -- and after -- election season a possibility. With that experience under their belts, legislative leaders are now eyeing more formal changes to their internal rules that would permanently amend the even-year July 31 target that has governed their operations for decades. To secure any alterations, though, Democrats will need to find agreement in an area where they have not had success for years: for two straight sessions, the House and Senate did not compromise on joint rules, leaving previous iterations in place on an ostensibly temporary basis. The year ahead will also bring renewed fighting over legislative transparency as Auditor Diana DiZoglio presses ahead with her voter-empowered bid to audit the Legislature, and top Democrats weigh whether to comply or to maintain their resistance. - Chris Lisinski

FAMILY SHELTERS: The humanitarian and financial crises associated with the state's family shelter system continue to drag into 2025. Funding for the emergency shelters is set to run out in January, and this looming shortfall will likely make appropriations and policy reform one of the first major bills for the new Legislature. While the concept of rapidly rehousing homeless families makes for a good catchphrase, it has proven difficult to implement. The state is now spending $1 billion annually on family shelter costs -- more than double what it used to cost -- and Gov. Healey has promised to move families out of expensive hotels and motels. Healey and lawmakers will likely agree on policies that move the state farther away from the traditional "right to shelter" model, with reforms to the system that guarantee less time in emergency housing for families. This issue remains a significant political challenge for Democrats, and conservatives are likely gearing up to make the issue central to their opposition campaigns to high-profile figures seeking reelection, like Boston Mayor Michelle Wu this year and Healey in 2026, if she chooses to run for governor again. - Sam Drysdale

MILTON ZONING CASE: Milton's long-running zoning spat with the state over the MBTA Communities Act could reach a resolution in mid-February, or potentially sooner, whenever the Supreme Judicial Court makes its expected decision in the case brought by Attorney General Andrea Campbell in an attempt to force the Boston suburb to comply with a 2021 zoning law. The town argues that the only consequence the Legislature prescribed for non-compliance is loss of certain state grant eligibility. The AG sued the town almost a year ago, Feb. 27, 2024, for violating the law -- which requires 177 communities with or adjacent to MBTA service to allow multi-family zoning by right in some areas -- after Milton residents voted to spike a zoning plan that Milton Town Meeting had approved. The SJC's decision could influence whether other municipalities in eastern Massachusetts choose to embrace or reject denser zoning as required by the law. But the majority of municipalities that have already faced their deadlines to comply with the law have done so. Campbell and top state officials view the law as a key tool for tackling Massachusetts's housing crisis. - Alison Kuznitz

TRUMP TERM TWO: Gov. Healey, who as attorney general sued Donald Trump roughly 100 times, seems poised to take a less adversarial approach when the president-elect returns to the White House this month. A day after the election, Healey was no longer on the offensive castigating Trump and seemed markedly somber when telling reporters that she and Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll "will work with anyone to make life better for residents in our state." Healey has momentarily regained some of her partisan fierceness in television interviews, saying days later that she would "absolutely not" fulfill a hypothetical request from the Trump administration for Massachusetts State Police to assist with mass deportations. From her perch now in the corner office, Healey needs to strategically weigh how battling Trump could risk Massachusetts losing out on federal funding, a key resource that her administration regularly competes for against other states. Health and Human Services Secretary Kate Walsh said state officials are focused on working with their federal counterparts, particularly in protecting Medicaid dollars. But Attorney General Andrea Campbell, who may be taking the baton from Healey and going on the offensive, has said she's worried about how the Trump presidency could impact access to reproductive and gender-affirming care -- even with the commonwealth's abortion shield law passed in the aftermath of the Dobbs ruling. Campbell has said she plans to review that law and others to ensure they are strong enough to withstand future challenges. - Alison Kuznitz

LEGAL INJECTION SITES: Lawmakers dropped the controversial idea to pursue supervised injection sites in a substance abuse law last year, but supporters are likely to continue to push the policy. With opioid-related deaths declining but still at crisis levels, the Senate embraced the sites, also known as overdose prevention centers, where people can use illegal drugs under the supervision of trained health care workers. Supporters say they are a life-saving tool to tamp down on the devastating effects of the opioid crisis, which has been exacerbated by the pervasive presence of fentanyl in the drug supply. Opponents note the sites are illegal under federal law and say they would encourage illegal drug use. The Senate-backed policy died in private opioid bill talks with the House. Injection sites have the support of Gov. Healey's Public Health Commissioner, Robbie Goldstein. Healey hasn't publicly said much about whether she supports the idea, and it remains to be seen whether she or Goldstein will put up more of a fight for them in the new session. - Sam Drysdale

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE UNCERTAINTY: In state government, $2.5 billion can still go a long way, and so the possibility that Massachusetts could wind up owing that much back to the federal government for a Gov. Charlie Baker-era error has the chance to cause quite a few headaches. It's been more than 18 months since the Healey administration revealed that Massachusetts mistakenly paid $2.5 billion in pandemic-era jobless benefits using federal dollars, not state dollars, and the U.S. Department of Labor still has not said whether the state will need to repay some or all of that total. Some onlookers think the incoming Trump team will be less inclined to give deep-blue Massachusetts a break. If the state does wind up on the hook, it's possible Beacon Hill moves to pass along the costs to employers, who are already facing higher UI costs as a result of upheaval during the COVID-19 crisis. That move will raise competitiveness questions. - Chris Lisinski

MCAS & GRADUATION: After voters approved Question 2 to eliminate the MCAS exam graduation requirement, Massachusetts is suddenly searching about for a new statewide standard. Gov. Healey has made clear that she wants a uniform graduation model that ensures equity across districts, and plans to bring together stakeholders this year to come up with a solution that abides by the vote law. Education Committee Co-Chair Sen. Jason Lewis said he plans to file a bill requiring MassCore completion for all students, which would mandate a certain curriculum, as an alternative to the exam requirement that voters scrapped. Critics argue that such a move will have to be coupled with strong oversight to ensure equity across districts, and it would require additional funding from the state, as some schools lack the resources to fully implement MassCore. Some business groups that opposed the ballot question say they'll try to convince leaders that the current MCAS system should stay in place until an alternative can be set up, though the Massachusetts Teachers Association -- which financially backed Question 2 -- says that's out of the question. As the state works on a replacement, there is pressure on districts to certify that students are meeting the statewide competency requirements to earn diplomas. - Sam Drysdale

TEACHER STRIKES: If the past is prologue, teachers strikes are likely to continue and even accelerate in the new year. Educator unions have been pushing the boundaries of the Bay State's law against public workers' strikes in recent years, and seem to be upping the ante with an eye towards making a political statement against the labor policy. As teacher contracts expire next year and educators stare down the cost of living crisis across the state, more local unions may choose the path that has now won a number of pay increase victories already, despite court fines and opposition from Gov. Healey and powerful lawmakers. Plus, the Massachusetts Teachers Association and Massachusetts branch of the American Federation of Teachers might try to build on their success at the 2024 ballot box by circumventing a reluctant Legislature and petitioning directly to voters to make teacher strikes legal in 2026 or future years. - Sam Drysdale

BLOWIN' IN THE WIND: Will 2025 finally be the year that Massachusetts gets meaningful power from offshore wind? The only project to have even begun turbine construction since the 2016 law that launched the Bay State's pursuit of wind power got a few megawatts of power in 2024 before a blade disintegrated and brought everything to a grinding halt. Last year's procurement of more wind power didn't live up to its full billing, the process was repeatedly delayed, and one of the three projects chosen has backed out before contracts could be negotiated. And now, new contracts for the projects that remain aren't due to be finalized until offshore wind opponent Donald Trump will be back in the White House later this month and there could be even greater uncertainty around the economic conditions that wiped out the state's project pipeline in 2022 and 2023. "It's important that we bring this back online. It is a very, very important industry to Massachusetts," Gov. Healey said in August about the Vineyard Wind 1 project and sector generally. "It's very important for the clean energy future, and I'm confident we get there." Political and economic concerns aside, wind boosters now too have to consider the threat that public favor could turn against the clean energy movement as costs soar and ratepayers resist the shift. - Colin A. Young

STEWARD RIPPLE EFFECTS: The remnants of the Steward Health Care crisis will continue to reshape the state's fragile health care system, as six hospitals adjust to new owners backed by a state aid package totaling at least $417 million over three years. Two work groups focused on the voids left by the closures of Carney Hospital in Dorchester and Nashoba Valley Medical Center in Ayer are expected to provide recommendations in early 2025 about community health care needs and ways to improve access to care. UMass Memorial has considered alternative uses for Nashoba, like transforming the hospital's emergency room into an urgent care facility. Under-construction Norwood Hospital, which Steward abandoned, remains closed, and the Healey administration says it's looking for a new operator to finish the project and resume health care services. The Health Policy Commission will be keeping close tabs on Revere Medical, the former Steward physician group acquired by an affiliate of a private equity company. - Alison Kuznitz

SOUTH COAST RAIL: Passenger rail service is expected to return to Taunton, Fall River and New Bedford for the first time since 1958 when the long-awaited MBTA commuter rail expansion to the South Coast begins service in May. Once service starts, all major cities within 50 miles of Boston will have commuter rail access to the state's capital. Versions of the project have been under debate and development for years and the go-live date has repeatedly been postponed. "I'm optimistic," Fall River Rep. Alan Silvia said in 2017. He added, "We all want to ride this train before I go to heaven - especially me." The $1.1 billion project's first phase will activate about 36 miles of existing tracks for commuter rail service with stations in Middleborough, East Taunton, Freetown, Fall River and New Bedford. The eventual full build is expected to extend the existing Stoughton Line south with stations in Easton, Raynham and Taunton before connecting with the Fall River and New Bedford lines. - Colin A. Young

MONEY FOR THE ENVIRONMENT: The big bond bills of 2024 were related to housing and economic development, but lawmakers have already begun lobbying for their pet projects and priorities in the environmental bond bill forthcoming from the Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs. As they ran out of options for advancing some provisions when lawmaking came to a head for the session last summer, some lawmakers mentioned that they would withdraw their ideas with the intention of trying to get the language into the under-development enviro bond bill. Bond bills authorize a maximum amount of capital spending, but not every dollar authorized becomes reality since the state is constrained to a much lower limit on annual borrowing. The most recent capital plan lists a fiscal 2025 bond cap of $303 million for EEA, with a cap of $1.555 billion over the five-year plan. - Colin A. Young

MAYORAL ELECTIONS: If history is any guide, at least some lawmakers from the 33 cities that will vote for mayor in 2025 will think about throwing their hats into the ring (especially knowing they would not have to give up their legislative seat unless they win). Mayor Michelle Wu's reelection effort in Boston headlines the pack, but four-year terms are also on the ballot in Easthampton, Everett, Framingham, Holyoke, Lawrence, Lynn, Newburyport, Newton, Northampton, Salem, and West Springfield. The Office of Campaign and Political Finance said voters will elect mayors for two-year terms in Agawam, Attleboro, Beverly, Brockton, Chicopee, Fall River, Fitchburg, Gardner, Gloucester, Haverhill, Leominster, Marlborough, Medford, Methuen, North Adams, Peabody, Somerville, Taunton, Westfield, Woburn, and Worcester. - Colin A. Young

2026 STATEWIDE ELECTIONS: It takes name recognition, time and money to build a statewide following and any candidate hoping to win one of the six constitutional offices up for grabs in 2026 will need to start early. Gov. Healey hasn't said if she will run for a second term and said in December that she would start thinking about that possibility at some point this year. Be on the lookout for a potential primary opponent for Auditor Diana DiZoglio, whose push for more accountability from the Legislature has rankled insiders in the General Court. Congressman Joseph Kennedy III didn't shy away from a challenge in 2020 when he tried, unsuccessfully, to unseat U.S. Sen. Ed Markey. Other officeholders must decide whether they will take a run at Markey in 2026, and some of the more veteran members of the state's Congressional delegation will also need to decide whether to keep going, or call it quits. - Michael P. Norton