Election Season Begins but Most Races Already Won

Colin A. Young, Sam Drysdale |SHNS

All 200 seats in the Massachusetts Legislature will be on the ballot this fall, but candidates are poised to secure their spots in nearly 60% of them without any official competition.

There are 25 incumbent senators (62.5% of the 40 total seats) and 91 incumbent representatives (about 57% of the 160 total seats) who are on track to cruise to reelection facing no other candidate on either a primary or general election ballot, according to an unofficial list of candidates who submitted enough signatures by Tuesday's state deadline to qualify for the ballot.

The data provided by Secretary of State William Galvin's office also show that there are two House districts where the incumbent is not running and only one candidate is, meaning 93 House seats could go uncontested in all. Though candidates may still launch write-in campaigns and others could be removed, the data suggest voters this fall will have a choice between listed candidates in just 82 of 200 legislative contests, or 41%.

It's further evidence that while people are affected by the actions of the Legislature, very few are interested in actually running for a shot to serve in it.

Primary elections are slated for Tuesday, Sept. 1 and the general election will be held Tuesday, Nov. 3. The 195th General Court will begin Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2027.

In the Senate, 25 senators are running entirely unopposed, 13 face some level of competition and there are open contests for two seats. Four senators face primary challenges from within the Democratic Party: Tony King and Michael Zullas are challenging Sen. William Driscoll in the Norfolk, Plymouth & Bristol District; Persis Yu is challenging Sen. Michael Rush in the Norfolk & Suffolk District; Latoya Sherria Gayle and Juwan Khiry Skeens are running against Sen. Nick Collins in the First Suffolk District; and Daniel Lander is challenging Senate President Pro Tempore William Brownsberger in the Suffolk & Middlesex District (unenrolled candidate Brandon Charles Wood is also vying for that seat).

No incumbent Republican senator faces a primary this year and only Sen. Peter Durant of Spencer faces opposition from a Democrat, Shannon Teabo of West Brookfield.

In the House, 91 representatives (81 Democrats, 9 Republicans, and Independent Rep. Susannah Whipps) are the only candidates slated to appear on the ballot in their districts, all but guaranteeing their reelection. The Republicans who did not draw any opposition to their reelection this cycle are Reps. Steven Xiarhos of Barnstable, Michael Chaisson of Foxborough, Steven Howitt of Seekonk, Norman Orrall of Lakeville, Todd Smola of Warren, Donald Berthiaume of Spencer, Michael Soter of Bellingham, David Muradian of Grafton, and Hannah Kane of Shrewsbury.

Twenty House incumbents face a primary challenge before they can get to November's ballot. On the Republican side, only Rep. John Gaskey of Carver has intraparty competition: from Carver Select Board Chair Mark Townsend. Among House Democrats, there are 19 contested primaries.

In two House districts, a newcomer appears poised to waltz right into office uncontested. Democrat Ravi Simon of Sudbury is the only candidate on the ballot for the 13th Middlesex District seat that his one-time boss Rep. Carmine Gentile is vacating, and Democrat Connor Murray of Andover is the only candidate on the ballot to replace Rep. Tram Nguyen, who is running for Congress.

Pointing to "a self-reinforcing cycle of low competition, low accountability and, crucially, low public trust," the Coalition for a Healthy Democracy is pushing a ballot question to replace party-based primaries with a single preliminary ballot featuring all candidates, regardless of party. Under the proposal that could be decided by voters in November, the top two vote-getters would advance to the general election.

Lawmakers who held a hearing on the ballot initiative voted earlier this month to recommend the Legislature take no action on the idea. That panel said testimony it heard "raised administrative and fiscal implications of implementing the proposal at both the state and municipal levels, as well as concerns that all-party primaries may result in vote splitting, reduced party accountability, voter confusion, and strategic voting, often disadvantaging less-funded candidates and producing unpredictable or unrepresentative outcomes."

The Democrats' lock on two-thirds supermajorities will not be threatened this cycle: the Republican Party is running at least one candidate in just 11 of the 40 Senate districts (12 candidates total, including five incumbents) and 46 of the 160 House districts (50 candidates total, including 23 incumbents). If Republicans were to win every one of those races, Democrats would still control at least 113 House seats (70.6% of the chamber) and 29 Senate seats (72.5%).

Amy Carnevale, chairwoman of the Republican Party since 2023, said Republicans are "feeling that we're in a great position" heading into the elections. She said the party's approach under her has been to focus on legislative seats "where we think we have the best chance of winning," recruiting the best candidates in those districts, and then supporting them.

"Certainly we like to give voters an ideological choice wherever we can. But, you know, the reality in Massachusetts is we are a state that is heavily gerrymandered, and given that fact, we really kind of choose as a party to invest our limited resources in those races where we think we can be competitive," Carnevale told the News Service. "So we feel good about the races where we are running candidates, and we're going to be focused on supporting those candidates with the resources they need to win in those seats."

Carnevale said the party has focused particularly on gaining ground in Bristol County, where she said there has been a trend of unenrolled voters registering as Republicans and where a handful of municipal leaders have switched their party affiliation to the GOP.

"So we've run a strong effort in Bristol County to recruit and run candidates there. Also, Plymouth County tends to be a strong county for us, as well as Worcester County too," she said. "Those are the three counties where we feel that we have good shots at kind of flipping some seats and adding to our numbers on the Republican side."

Races to watch

Several legislative contests are shaping up as major political pressure points this election cycle, with crowded open-seat primaries, ideological fights over Beacon Hill leadership, and incumbents facing challengers who are framing themselves as anti-establishment alternatives.

Shakeups are unfolding in two open Senate districts north of Boston after Sens. Patricia Jehlen and Jason Lewis announced they would not seek reelection.

Jehlen's retirement after 20 years in the Senate opened a sprawling five-way Democratic primary in the Second Middlesex District, which includes Somerville, Medford and parts of Cambridge and Winchester.

The field features Somerville City Councilor Matthew McLaughlin, Cambridge City Councilor Burhan Azeem, and Reps. Christine Barber and Erika Uyterhoeven, underscoring how attractive the open seat is to ambitious lawmakers looking to join the many before them who have moved from the House to the Senate. Uyterhoeven has positioned herself as a progressive voice in the House and someone willing to vote against leadership.

Just to the north, Lewis's departure created a similarly competitive scramble in the Fifth Middlesex District. Lewis is leaving behind a legacy as one of the Legislature's chief education policy architects, having played a central role in the Student Opportunity Act and recent literacy reform efforts.

He endorsed Rep. Kate Lipper-Garabedian, saying she would continue that legacy. The representative is running against other Democrats, Ryan O'Malley and Carey McDonald, in a district spanning Malden, Melrose, Reading, Stoneham, Wakefield and parts of Winchester.

With two veteran senators exiting simultaneously, Democrats are closely watching who emerges from the open-seat fights that have not drawn any interest from Republicans.

Two Boston senators are also drawing attention as Mayor Michelle Wu's allies test Senate leadership.

Senate President Karen Spilka's leadership team is expected to rally behind Brownsberger as he faces Democrat Daniel Lander, a Wu advisor whose candidacy stems partly from tensions over the Senate's rejection of Boston's property tax classification proposal. In the First Suffolk, Collins is facing two Democratic challengers with one, Latoya Sherria Gayle, viewed as aligned with Wu's political orbit.

Rush also faces a progressive challenger, in the Norfolk and Suffolk District that has moved further left in recent years. Rush has run unopposed both in the Democratic primary and the general election every cycle since at least 2012. Yu, a Hyde Park attorney, says "across the district, voters are hungry for change," according to the Westwood Minute. The district includes parts of Boston, Westwood, Norwood and Walpole.

House leadership is closely monitoring Cambridge Rep. Marjorie Decker's rematch against progressive challenger Evan MacKay in the 25th Middlesex District. Decker survived last cycle's Democratic primary by just 41 votes after a recount. MacKay, a Sierra Club leader running as an anti-establishment candidate, has criticized Decker's support for a controversial energy bill that cut MassSave funding.

A loss by Decker, a veteran lawmaker with deep ties to House leadership, would reverberate beyond Cambridge.

In southeastern Mass., the Third Bristol District is again emerging as one of the state's most competitive House races.

Democrat Lisa Field defeated Republican Larry Quintal in last year's special election by just 15 votes after a recount, and Quintal is back for a rematch in the politically divided Taunton and Easton district.

But Field first faces a Democratic primary challenge from Taunton Police Chief Edward Walsh Jr., whose candidacy appears tied to a bitter local dispute over legislation that would have allowed him to remain police chief beyond the mandatory retirement age of 65, according to the Taunton Daily Gazette. Walsh pulled papers to run shortly after the home rule petition to allow him to stay in his police role past age 65 stalled on Beacon Hill and after Field declined to take a position supporting the extension.

The race now carries implications both for House leadership looking to preserve Democratic seats and for local political divisions in Taunton.

Other closely watched House races include the Fifth Essex District, where newly elected Rep. Andrew "Dru" Tarr will defend the Cape Ann seat only months after winning a special election following the death of longtime Rep. Ann-Margaret Ferrante. Tarr now faces both a Democratic primary challenge from longtime Rockport Select Board member Sarah Wilkinson and a general election challenge from Republican Christina Delisio, recreating many of the same battle lines from the special election.

In the Ninth Bristol District, four candidates are competing for retiring Rep. Christopher Markey's open seat in a politically competitive district anchored in Dartmouth and New Bedford. Democrats Edward Pacheco and Stephen Medeiros are competing with Republicans Chester Tam and former New Bedford Councilor Henry Bousquet in a race that could test whether Republicans can continue gaining ground in Bristol County.

The Second Plymouth District features the Legislature's only Republican-on-Republican House primary, with Gaskey facing Townsend, who is also a GOP state committee member. Carnevale said the party's bylaws call for it to sit out intraparty contests absent a two-thirds vote of the state committee.

Gaskey, among the House's most conservative members, has often broken with both Democrats and Republican leadership on issues including vaccines and transgender athlete participation. Townsend is pitching himself as a more pragmatic conservative focused on local governance and accountability, while Democrat Sarah Hewins, another longtime Carver local official, is emphasizing transparency and legislative reform.

In western Massachusetts, Republican Rep. Nick Boldyga's reelection campaign has become a referendum on his approach to the job.

Democrat Thomas Hendrickson, an Agawam city councilor, is confronting Boldyga for failing to attend any legislative committee hearings this session. Boldyga argues the committee process is fundamentally broken and controlled by Democratic leadership, but Hendrickson says western Massachusetts cannot afford to have lawmakers disengaged from the legislative process.

And the retirement of House Minority Leader Brad Jones of North Reading after 32 years in the House and 24 years leading the GOP caucus will have the Republican Party playing a bit of defense this fall, Carnevale said.

"We do have a good candidate, and we're prepared to defend it, and we think we can hold on to it," the chairwoman said. "But again, it's a seat that has, I would say, become more purple over time. So that's a seat that, we'll be investing in holding that seat."

Colin Young is the deputy editor and Sam Drysdale is a reporter for State House News Service and State Affairs Pro Massachusetts.