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Above, Seth Moulton, the Northshore Congressman eyeing a run against Sen. Markey.
Sam Drysdale | SHNS
A new statewide poll of likely Massachusetts voters shows Congressman Seth Moulton could claim an early advantage over U.S. Sen. Ed Markey in a hypothetical 2026 U.S. Senate Democratic primary, while a solid majority of voters voiced support for cutting the state income tax rate to 4%.
The poll, conducted September 24–25 by Advantage, Inc. for the Fiscal Alliance Foundation, surveyed 750 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
In a hypothetical U.S. Senate matchup that the Salem Congressman says he has not made a decision about, Moulton leads Markey 43% to 21% among all voters, with 36% undecided. Among Democratic voters who would be a big part of the primary electorate, Moulton leads 38% to Markey’s 30%.
Nearly two-thirds of all respondents — 63% — said the 79-year-old incumbent should not seek reelection in 2026. Advantage, Inc. said they polled general election-likely voters, not primary voters, about the possible U.S. Senate matchup.
On fiscal policy, 62% of voters said they support cutting the state income tax rate from 5% to 4%, with just 24% opposed. Support for the cut crossed party lines, according to the poll’s sponsors. The measure is among those proposed for possible inclusion on the 2026 ballot.
Gov. Maura Healey led against Republican challengers statewide, but trailed among independent voters. Asked which candidate respondents would support if the election were held today, Healey got the support of 45% of respondents when matched against former Housing and Economic Development Secretary Mike Kennealy (34%) and the support of 46% of respondents against former MBTA administrator Brian Shortsleeve (31%).
Among independent voters, Kennealy led Healey 43% to 33%, and Shortsleeve led her 40% to 35%.
The poll did not test Kennealy and Shortsleeve against one another.
"If I was working for Healey, I'd be a little concerned about those numbers, especially considering that they're trailing her job approval ratings," said Jim Eltringham of Advantage, Inc. at a press conference on Wednesday. He later added, "There is a sense of a feeling that there might be something better out there."
Among statewide voters, 58% said they approved of the job Healey is doing (30% strongly approve, and 28% somewhat approve.)
"She's been there for, you know, coming on four years. But really, if you think of the AG background, that's a 12-year incumbent statewide, and when you're thrown against one of the Republicans.... and you're under 50%, I think what Jim just said is pretty true," said Fiscal Alliance spokesperson Paul Craney.
A reporter pressed Craney on the governor's 58% job approval rate.
"Yes, there may be this feeling that, okay, Healey is doing a good job. Her numbers are very high with Democrats, 80% job approval ratings... With independents, she's actually pretty good, 50% there. But what we see is, as Paul said, that this idea that okay, the job performance is fine. Maybe there's, again, something that might be better out there," Eltringham said.
Healey's campaign pointed the News Service to the Massachusetts Democratic Party when asked for a response to the poll.
Democratic Party Chair Steve Kerrigan said the results should be taken with skepticism given the poll’s sponsor.
"This is a partisan organization and a deeply partisan poll, and even with that MassFiscal has Maura Healey winning by a significant margin. That has to hurt the anonymous Republican donors who fund them," Kerrigan said.
In a press release, Kennealy said: "This poll proves what we already know - Maura Healey is beatable. I am the only Republican candidate with the experience, energy, policies, and resources to win in 2026."
The Kennealy camp's statement added that his opponent in the Republican primary is "unelectable."
"[Shortsleeve] trails Healey by 15 points - a nearly unprecedented gap when compared to the 2014 cycle, in which only 4 out of 60 polls ever showed Charlie Baker behind by that much," said Brian Wynne, senior advisor and pollster for the Kennealy campaign.
A spokesperson for Shortsleeve said the poll showed the race is far from over and highlighted shifting voter concerns around affordability and leadership.
"The poll proves that Healey is deeply vulnerable and wrong on the issues that matter most to Massachusetts voters," said Shortsleeve spokesperson Holly Robichaud. "As a Marine, successful businessman and prover [sic] reformer, Brian Shortsleeve is the best Republican candidate to hold Healey to account for her failed record that has made Massachusetts the least affordable state in the nation."
The survey also gauged public opinion on several hot-button policy issues, including rent control and energy policy. A majority (53%) opposed rent control outright, and opposition rose to 65% when respondents were told it could lead to higher property taxes for homeowners.
When asked about the state’s net zero 2050 mandate, 54% said they opposed the climate policy when it was described as increasing energy costs and reducing consumer choice. Roughly one-third supported the policy as described.
On energy supply, 62% of voters said they support building new natural gas pipelines in New England. Support for nuclear energy was also notable, with 51% in favor of building new nuclear plants.
Eltringham said the findings suggest affordability is emerging as a unifying concern among voters across the political spectrum.
"We do see a pretty good pattern of people saying that they're concerned about affordability, that they're concerned about their energy bills, and they want to see solutions to that, and they're looking for places where those solutions can come," he said.
The poll also included questions on taxpayer rebates, public records access, nicotine restrictions, and other policy issues.
